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Graphic: World FX rates website
Graphic: Global asset performance website
European stocks, S&P 500 futures steady, Nasdaq futures up 0.2%
Dollar slips as Treasury yields touch 7-month
By Tom Wilson and Wayne Cole
LONDON/SYDNEY, Dec 28 (Reuters) – World shares gained
on Thursday as market wagers on ever-more aggressive interest
rate cuts stretched a rally in U.S. stocks and bonds, while the dollar fell to
The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, gained 0.2%,
with European shares steady, just shy of a 23-month high hit two weeks ago,
and were on course for gains of about 13% this year.
The S&P 500 has climbed 14% in just two months to come within a whisker
of its all-time closing peak, while its price to earnings ratio is up by a quarter
on the year at 24.0.
S&P 500 futures were flat and Nasdaq futures up 0.2%.
“With little news to trade over the holidays, markets have just continued doing what they were doing previously – taking Treasury yields lower, equities higher – and in effect pricing the kindest of soft landings that has consequently seen the dollar continue to sell-off,” said Nick Rees FX analyst
at Monex Europe.
An absence of major news has not stopped investors from ramping up bets
on rapid-fire rate cuts next year from the Federal Reserve.
Futures now imply an 88% chance of a rate cut as early as
March, a huge swing from a month ago when the probability was just
The market has about 157 basis points of easing priced in for 2024, and sees rates reaching 3.00-3.25% over 2025.
“The rapid decline in inflation is likely to lead the Fed to cut early and fast to reset the policy rate from a level that most participants will likely soon see as far offside,” wrote analysts
at Goldman Sachs in a note.
“We expect three consecutive 25bp cuts in March, May, and June, followed by one cut per quarter until the funds rate reaches 3.25-3.5% in 2025 Q3. Our forecast implies 5 cuts in 2024 and 3 more cuts in 2025.”
Earlier, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added another 1.4%,
to be up about 11% in two months and at its highest since August, boosted by gains in Chinese stocks.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 2.5% and mainland blue chips gained 2.3%, as beaten down valuations finally began to attract interest
Yields on 10-year Treasury notes stood at 3.817%,
having hit a five-month low overnight. The two-year yield was down at 4.262%, having been as high as
5.295% as recently as October.
The declines, while consistent with the overall trend, were helped by robust
demand at a 5 year Treasury auction.
The falls weighed broadly on the U.S. dollar and lifted the
euro to its highest since July at $1.11395. The single currency was last at $1.1113,
having gained 2% so far this month to within sight of its 2023
top of $1.1276.
The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, fell to a fresh
five-month low of 100.61. The index is on course for
a 2.7% decline this year, snapping two straight years of strong gains.
“Investors are placing more weight on Fed expectations driving currencies, than the signalling from other central banks like the ECB,” said
Alan Ruskin, global head of G10 FX strategy at Deutsche Bank.
“In part, that’s because the Fed also has more impact on the overall global risk environment, which has become more risk friendly and thereby also less USD positive.”
The dollar also lost ground to the yen at 140.86 yen ,
having shed 4.7% for the month so far. It is
still up sharply for the year as the Bank of Japan takes a glacial approach to tightening its
In an interview published on Wednesday, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said he was in no rush
to unwind those loose policies as the risk
of inflation running well above 2% and accelerating was small.
Oil prices, which slid on Wednesday, remained subdued as concerns over supplies
eased after major shippers announced they would return to the Red Sea.
Brent fell 90 cents to $78.74 a barrel, while
U.S. crude fell by around one dollar to $73.08 per barrel.
(Reporting by Tom Wilson in London and Wayne Cole
in Sydney; additional reporting by Alun John in London;
Editing by Edwina Gibbs, Sam Holmes, Christina Fincher and Chizu Nomiyama)
For a measure of the state of utter desperation that Spanish football’s two fallen giants now find themselves in, consider how Barcelona’s
players spent Wednesday evening.
No sooner had they completed their home game against Almeria than they were boarding an aircraft for a gruelling 14-hour flight to Dallas, to
fulfil a friendly fixture against a Mexican side and earn the club £4.3million.
And therein lies the reason why one of the great names of
continental football — five times European Cup winners,
who left Sir Alex Ferguson a haunted man after playing Manchester United off the Wembley pitch barely a decade ago — were one of the two driving forces behind a relaunch of the European Super League yesterday, along with Real Madrid.
They desperately need some ready cash.
The diminishment of these clubs has been as slow as it has
been painful these past five years, with hubris,
greed and mismanagement at the heart of it.
It’s been a story of both taking a huge share of the television revenue, destroying the competitive balance in Spain that the Premier League enjoys.
Real Madrid and Barcelona have showed desperation by persisting with relaunched Super League
Madrid chief Florentino Perez and Barca supremo Joan Laporta are both in serious need
of cash for their clubs
Your browser does not support iframes.
A story of falling attendances. Of TV deals a fraction of England’s.
Of the unfettered transfer market spending frenzy of the last two decades, until salary caps were imposed, which have delivered Barca, in particular, into
a state of financial meltdown.
A European Super League is the apparent release from this state of financial purgatory — a way, for both clubs, of clawing back revenue and relevance in the face of the relentless dominance
of the Premier League, where all the best players
now seek incredible fortunes.
No sooner had the European Court of Justice ruled yesterday that banning clubs from
joining a breakaway league was illegal than we were reacquainted with A22 — organisers of the Super
League, not the dual carriageway in Sussex — whose attempts to
launch the competition dissolved in a storm of protest from fans, two-and-a-half years ago.
Ahead of the relaunch, the organisers had clearly spent
some time in front of whiteboards with coloured marker pens,
because they presented a very clear idea of what their Super
League looked like: 64 teams grouped in a Star League, a Gold League
and a third-tier Blue League, with promotion and relegation between each division.
No one of any significance seems to have any appetite for their breakaway after mass protests came in 2021 when proposals were first unveiled
LaLiga’s two giants are attempting to salvage revenue and relevance
after being devoured by the Premier League
But there was an inconvenient truth. No one of
significance, bar Real and Barcelona, seemed to have
any appetite for this. The so-called Premier League ‘break-away six’ —
initial backers of the Super League last time
around — certainly didn’t, having been forced into humiliating apologies to incandescent
fans for signing up to it in 2021.
German clubs weren’t interested for cultural reasons.
Juventus have turned against the concept since a change in the composition of their board.
Paris Saint-Germain won’t countenance it for political reasons.
In Spain, Atletico Madrid were the first club to announce no interest.
Manchester United also declared themselves out in very short order.
Later Tottenham, Chelsea and City joined in.
It all seemed rather excruciating for the desperados of Barca and Real, yet they ploughed on regardless, invigorated by
the ECJ judgement, disregarding the fact that the legal right to
break away is not so significant if no one else wants to do it.
A flurry of teams have rejected the new format, though Barca and Real Madrid have plouged on regardless
Madrid chief Perez has insisted that clubs must be ‘in control of their
That’s desperation for you — and Barca, in particular have
become very well acquainted with that, just lately.
They’re playing their games at the Olympic Stadium up a mountain at
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There’s not much appetite for the place among fans of the club, who are third in the league table, seven points adrift of leaders Girona, after a late, narrow win against Almeria.
Attendances are through the floor. The stadium holds 54,000, yet just 35,000
were in attendance for a significant visit of Atletico two weeks ago.
There were 34,000 for Almeria.
There was a time when La Liga prided itself on an ability to out-think richer and bigger rivals like
the Premier League, though there’s not been much progressive
thinking about some of the kick-off times, either.
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Reform UK will not be a force in the next Parliament.
Indeed, the party’s chances of sending even a single MP to the
Commons after the general election are vanishingly small.
It can, however, do enormous damage to the
electoral ambitions of dozens of Conservative MPs.
With its Brexit zeal, net-zero scepticism, tax-cutting pledges, and call for a ban on all ‘non-essential’ immigration, Reform hopes to appeal
to disaffected voters on the Right of the spectrum.
Currently polling at up to nine per cent and planning to fight every constituency in England, Scotland,
and Wales, it could prove to be the Tories’ worst nightmare.
Already languishing in the polls behind Labour and under intense
pressure from the Lib Dems in their southern heartlands, a
Reform surge would mean the Conservatives fighting on three fronts – all
of them vicious.
Reform Party leader Richard Tice speaking at a press conference at the Conrad Hilton, London, to outline the party’s plans for 2024 on January 3
Reform leader Richard Tice made clear yesterday that there would be no backstage deals and no quarter, as he gave a
foretaste of how he plans to fight the election. His aim is to ‘smash’ the Tories, he said,
describing Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer as ‘two sides of the same Socialist coin’.
But exasperated as they may be with high taxes, high immigration and
the high cost of living under this government, wavering Tory
voters must use their heads.
Mr Tice himself warns of a ‘Starmergeddon’ of economic and cultural collapse in the
event of a Labour victory. Yet by deliberately chipping away at the Conservatives, he makes that outcome far more likely.
For be under no illusion, every vote for Reform inches Sir Keir a little closer to Downing Street.
Mr Sunak’s mission is to win back Tory hearts and minds.
With a dramatic fall in inflation, fewer migrant boats crossing
the Channel and interest rates beginning to drop, 2024
has started well.
Mr Tice himself warns of a ‘Starmergeddon’ of economic and
cultural collapse in the event of a Labour victory. Yet by deliberately chipping away at the Conservatives, he makes that
outcome far more likely
He must now build on those green shoots of recovery with sizeable tax cuts in the March budget, NHS reform and an iron resolve to
force through his Rwanda plan.
A review of net-zero targets that threaten to make families poorer, reining in ballooning public spending and pushing back against
trans-extremism will also help his cause.
The truth is Reform can’t hope to stave off the threat of a ruinous Labour government, even if Nigel Farage decides to join Mr Tice on the stump.
The Conservatives are the only possible alternative.
A glimmer of light?
In a sign that the worst of the cost of living crisis may be behind
us, high street lenders have started a mortgage
price war. HSBC cut one of its five-year fixed rates to below four per cent, and other banks have
followed suit with substantial cuts.
This suggests they have confidence that inflation is now sufficiently under control for the Bank of England to cut base rates substantially over the coming months.
As well as being a huge relief to homeowners, this could also pay electoral dividends for the Government, who
will argue that although it has been painful, its financial strategy is
Also yesterday, two leading budget airlines – Ryanair and Wizz – announced that
they carried a record number of passengers last
month, and the cruise industry was predicting a bumper year, as holidaymakers
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488 million – the highest since before the pandemic.
Whisper it quietly, but might the economic gloom be starting
Rishi SunakBrexitWalesKeir Starmer
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